Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
