A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
